In this part we're going to set the timeline of completion with mathematical analysis. As established in the Part 3,
after adding the AEE of walking, D has a calorific deficit of 1930 whereas V has 645 calories worth of deficit. D has been munching on cookies and other
"crappy" stuff, purposely lowering his deficit to around 1500 cals and yet has the advantage of a bigger deficit or not?
Now, he could chose to be stricter being at a 1900cal, after all in 150 grams of Carbs allowance and a buffer of 400 calories on top of it many delicacies could be enjoyed.
If you've no idea what's going on here read the previous parts1, 2, 3 of this series. For the sake of long-term adherence, as D has a larger amount of weight to lose and even at a larger rate it would take quite some time, some binging is only humane. By binging here i mean calculated binging where you eat crap to fill your heart and still have the calorie deficit always hovering above 1500 a day.
Let’s recap the stats real quick, lifting the numbers straight from the part 3 of this rapid fat loss series, D is starting at 280 lbs with 30% bf putting him at 84 lbs fat and 196 lbs lean body weight. Similarly V is starting at 138 lbs with 30% bf putting her at 42 lbs fat and 96 lbs lean body weight. As you might recall from the case study of starvation series even with abundant fat stores and sufficient protein intake some loss of lean tissue is inevitable.
Even more so in women due to estrogen and other hormones predisposing them for preferring fat over lean tissue. Men with the testosterone flowing around preserve lean mass better. The ratio of 90% fat and 10% lean tissue being catabolized as established in the starvation study could be used for D here, but for V we have to think along the lines of 80% fat and 20% lean tissue. Now, that’s not a bad thing at all, women don’t want the big arms and upper body musculature that comes with large weight gain, they want to lose it all anyway.
Let’s do the calculations now with weekly numbers to make it less cumbersome. D’s deficit is 1500 cals, so 90% fat loss would burn 1500 x 0.9 = 1350 calories from Fat cells and remaining 150 calories from lean tissue daily. Weight in lbs of fat and lean tissue being catabolized daily = 1350 / 3500 = .38 pounds of adipose tissue aka fat and 150 / 700 = .21 pounds of lean tissue. In a week = .38 + .21 = 0.6 x 7 = 4.1 pounds of weight lost. In a month that is 16.5 pounds of weight loss.
To attain 15% body fat he has to be at a body weight of = lbw / [ 1 – (15/100) ] = 196 / 0.85 = 230 lbs. For more on this formula and how to use it or why to use it, check out this uber awesome article on Body fat % estimation. So, from 280 to 230 lbs requires 50 lbs of weight loss in total. The calculation is formulated with the assumption of little to no lean mass loss.
50 lbs of weight loss at the rate of 4.1 lbs weekly pegs D at 50/4.1 = 12 weeks of fat loss journey i.e 3 months. So far so good, right?
NO! It’s not right, 50 lbs weight loss in 3 months is all well and good but that won’t put D at 15% body fat. See, most resources or programs on the Internet never bother considering the effect of lean body weight loss on a Rapid Fat Loss program, they deal with hard and fast lbs numbers only. Either they assume no lbw loss or they skip the co-realtion with body fat% altogether.
Being the no-life nerd with obsession for atomic clock accuracy, in an ideal world i would iterate and reiterate after every day, finding out all the numbers anew and doing all the calculations over again. But that would be doing math just for mathematics sake. The level of precision even with weekly iterations we’re going to cover here is unheard of in ANY fat loss program.
Let’s reiterate for every 4 weeks considering the lbw loss and tracking body fat % in the process.
In first 4 weeks D would lose = 4 x 7 x .21 = 5.8 lbs of lean tissue and 0.38 x 4 x 7 = 10.6 lbs of adipose tissue aka fat cells.
New weight = 280 – (5.8 + 10.6) = 263.6 lbs | new LBW = 196 – 5.8 = 190.2 | new fat weight = 84 – 10.6 = 73.4 |
Body Fat % after the first week = (fat weight / body weight) x 100 = 73.4/263.6 x 100 = 27.8%.
Iterating after the second phase of 4 weeks.
New weight = 263.6 – (5.8 + 10.6) = 247.3 | New lbw = 190.2 – 5.88 = 184.5 | New Fat weight = 73.4 – 10.6 = 62.8 |
Notice the same amount of weight loss, due to constant 1500 calorie deficit day in and out, but different rate of body fat % change due to different rate of loss of lean and fat tissues.
Body fat % after the second 4week phase = 62.8 / 247.3 x 100 = 25.4%
Iterating after the third phase of 4 weeks.
New weight = 247.3 – 16.4 = 231 | New lbw = 184.5 – 5.8 = 178.7 | new fat weight = 62.8 – 10.6 = 52.2 |
Body fat % after the third 4 week phase = 52.2 / 231 x 100 =22.5%
Most candidates would be happy after a month on this program, 22% body fat is a vast improvement over 30%, plus the sheer amount is weight lost is astonishing. From 280 lbs to 231; 50 lbs of weight loss. Notice the same figures from the calculations done in the start, only if the body fat % wasn’t such a c*nt.
I would suggest to take a break here, eat at maintenance calories and chill out for a week, you’re close. That reefed would make your leptin and thyroid rebound to normal levels. In a severe deficit case, their down-regulation isn’t much of a problem unless you start pushing below 15%. So this refeed isn't needed, just something you might want after 3 months of "dieting".
Starting with the reiterations again,
for the 4th phase of 4 weeks.
New weight = 231 – 16.4 = 213.6 lbs | new lbw = 178.7 – 5.8 = 172 lbs | new fat weight = 52.2 – 10.6 = 41.6 |
Body fat % = 41.6 / 213.6 x 100 = 19.4%.
Hopefully the fifth and last iteration of 4 weeks.
new weight = 213.6 – 16.4 = 197.2 | new lbw = 172 – 5.8 = 166.2 | new fat weight = 41.6 – 10.6 = 31 lbs
Body fat % after the last phase of 4 weeks = 31 / 197.2 x 100 = 15.7%.
So, in 20 weeks D has lost 280 – 197 = 83 pounds of weight and went to 15% body fat from 30% body fat.
D is a healthy, relatively "fit" and have acquired the mental fortitude for a life of clean eating and to start my Rapid Muscle Gain program. Now i know the 80 pound weight loss or whatever you would lose is not as visually appealing as the pictures of the internet make you believe it to be. The sexy part comes after decent muscle gain and another targeted strength-lean cut.
I wanted to cover V's timeline here as well, but it's getting too long already. Ladies, meet me in the next part for setting the timeline and some expert insight for the fairer sex.
Check out the Part 1 | Part 2 | & Part 3 |of this series.
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